tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4153985804832811048.post4755013593100998465..comments2024-03-29T03:50:00.893-04:00Comments on Urban kchoze: Montréal and Sapporosimval84http://www.blogger.com/profile/10615053214354191224noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4153985804832811048.post-6576783223780093652014-09-13T21:00:10.305-04:002014-09-13T21:00:10.305-04:00I couldn't tell you what the turnover rate is....I couldn't tell you what the turnover rate is. That being said, around 122 000 of the unoccupied units according to the survey are either for rent (108 000), for sale (9 000), under construction (2 000) or serving as secondary housing (3 000), leaving around 17 000 that are vacant without justification, I'm guess these are abandoned houses and apartment blocs. So owners of most of these units seem to keep the hope that they will find tenants for their property.<br /><br />In all of Hokkaido, there are 109 000 dwelling units that are vacant without justification and are neither for rent nor for sale, which represents 30% of all unoccupied dwelling units. Much worse than the 11,5% they are in Sapporo. But that's not surprising considering the population decline of Japan.simval84https://www.blogger.com/profile/10615053214354191224noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4153985804832811048.post-46951725766016842802014-09-13T19:52:56.109-04:002014-09-13T19:52:56.109-04:00Interesting note about the vacancy rates. I wonde...Interesting note about the vacancy rates. I wonder what the turnover time is in Sapporo versus Montreal. A high vacancy rate isn't necessarily a bad thing if the units turn over quickly, and in that case would probably indicate a higher rate of people moving around (call it a higher baseline vacancy rate maybe?). It's sort of how the baseline/natural unemployment rate is different in different countries. Historically I think it was something like 5% in the US, but closer to 10% in France for instance. Maybe there's a similar dynamic here? Jeffrey Jakucykhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04092631645389171565noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4153985804832811048.post-21608203453759688082014-09-13T17:48:20.758-04:002014-09-13T17:48:20.758-04:00Thanks for the reply. That combination of vacancy...Thanks for the reply. That combination of vacancy rate and new construction is an interesting demonstration of the point of your filtering/gentrification article.<br />Joshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484810849321286652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4153985804832811048.post-12191235203642630332014-09-13T00:06:28.028-04:002014-09-13T00:06:28.028-04:00Thank you for your comment.
My numbers were from ...Thank you for your comment.<br /><br />My numbers were from the Japanese Land Survey (available in English), using the data for the dwelling units by year of construction. It is indeed possible that a part of it is in replacement of earlier housing units, to a lesser extent, the data for Montréal also is about housing starts, so some of them may also be in replacement of earlier housing.<br /><br />However, comparing the 2003 and 2008 surveys, the number of dwelling units in the city of Sapporo increased from 879 900 in 2003 to 985 400 in 2008, a gain of 105 500 in 5 years, or around 21 000 per year, so it seems most new units are not in replacement of earlier ones, or at least are much denser than what they replace. Also, the number of unoccupied units increased from 110 000 to 140 000.<br /><br />Yes, you read that correctly. The vacancy rate in Sapporo is 14% going by this data, more than twice the rate in Montréal according to the census, which is 6,6% (813 819 total dwellings, but only 759 946 are "occupied by usual residents"). It means that between 2003 and 2008, Sapporo added 105 000 dwellings, but saw an increase of 30 000 dwelling units that were unoccupied. That sets the stage for filtering and affordable housing, I think, but may make older, less attractive spots start to look like ghost towns as the residents start looking for better, more recent apartments in more attractive locations (as if old danchis weren't creepy enough as it is!).<br /><br />From searching on suumo.jp, it seems plenty of old houses are made into rentals if they don't find a buyer, perhaps to help the owner pay the taxes on his property while finding a buyer. For instance, 450$ a month for a 1000-square-foot single-family house at a 3-minute walk from a train station:<br />https://suumo.jp/chintai/hokkaido_/sc_sapporoshiteine/bc_100016782674/<br /><br />Okay, that's a particularly cheap example, but there are many decently-sized single-family houses more than 20 years old that are for rent at prices under 1000$ a month.<br /><br />As to population, the region of Sapporo is growing in population, but less than the region of Montréal. Still, the context is different, the Japanese aren't keen on immigration and have a low birth rate, so their population is declining. If Sapporo is growing, it's because rural regions are losing population.<br /><br />Furthermore, I just found a great site about population trends<br />http://www.citypopulation.de/<br /><br />If I look at the page for Sapporo:<br />http://www.citypopulation.de/php/japan-sapporo.php<br /><br />I notice that of the 25 000 new residents of Sapporo between 2010 and 2013, 10 000 came from the central Chuo ward, the fastest growing of them all. Meanwhile, the wards outside the reach of the subway are all stagnating or losing population.simval84https://www.blogger.com/profile/10615053214354191224noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4153985804832811048.post-67816606260966378412014-09-12T19:56:27.012-04:002014-09-12T19:56:27.012-04:00Thanks for the fascinating article. I grew up in ...Thanks for the fascinating article. I grew up in Montreal but don't know Sapporo except from your blog.<br /><br />I do have a few questions about your housing numbers. Do the two metropolitan areas have similar population growth rates? If not, how does the difference impact density and affordability? Also, I remember you mentioned elsewhere that houses in Japan are demolished sooner than in North America. Do you have an idea what percentage of housing construction is simply to replace units that are demolished, and if the percentage would differ in any significant way between Sapporo itself and its metropolitan area?Joshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484810849321286652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4153985804832811048.post-64571253215816194972014-09-12T07:55:51.327-04:002014-09-12T07:55:51.327-04:00Charlie Garder at Old Urbanist did an interesting ...Charlie Garder at Old Urbanist did an interesting comparison between density and housing prices between the US and Mexico a little while back. While Mexico isn't much for high-rises, they have very high homeownership rates by allowing small lot sizes and correspondingly small houses. It's similar to what you see in the residential "suburbs" of Tokyo. I wonder if Brazil might have some interesting stats with its varied city types. I agree that Western Europe is a difficult one, but might there be some places on the fringes that are more forgiving, like maybe Eastern Europe or even Russia? Jeffrey Jakucykhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04092631645389171565noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4153985804832811048.post-53731089852418769562014-09-12T00:03:10.382-04:002014-09-12T00:03:10.382-04:00I don't know many places in the developed worl...I don't know many places in the developed world with Japan's strong pro-development bend. Most of Europe seems to firmly believe in height-limits and harmonious, uniform urban areas. Germany has been described as having relatively affordable housing, but I don't have any source to see whether that's a correct assessment or not.simval84https://www.blogger.com/profile/10615053214354191224noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4153985804832811048.post-40964030010322893242014-09-10T15:37:46.911-04:002014-09-10T15:37:46.911-04:00The comparatively low rents in Japanese cities is ...The comparatively low rents in Japanese cities is a real eye-opener for the density vs. rent argument. Are there similar examples in other parts of the world, particularly in the west? Jeffrey Jakucykhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04092631645389171565noreply@blogger.com